A recommendation: I have recently come across a Substack written by Aurelien – aurelien.substack.com - which focuses on foreign policy and related matters from the perspective of someone who has been there and done that.
The basic metrics on Europe suggest it is now decline relative to the rest of the world. In politics and the media critical analysis that I remember from decades ago has been for the most part replaced by select disjointed facts barely held in a string bag of political theories bearing little resemblance to reality.
Your pension and social security analysis today is excellent. This clearly places the relative costs of spending and the social compact in a realistic light. I remember the talks by Hans Rosling two decade ago on social security spending and its inexorable growth as a proportion of GDP. What we see now in the UK (and may be in Europe as a while) looks like a desperate attempt to keep spending on none essential political projects while jettisoning the spending on essentials of the social compact. Looking at the borrowing, spending and the media noise it looks like we are nearing a point of some sort of reckoning in politics as the money runs out.
This is the second cycle of pessimism overtaking optimism in my life span. The original one was the sense of dislocation and failure during the late 1960s and 1970s - in effect the end of the post-war boom and the initial phase of liberalisation. Mrs T's period in office changed that partly by throwing out conventional wisdom from the previous 30 years and partly as a consequence of good luck - the oil & finance sectors. However, that boost arguably died in 2008 and, even worse, left much of the country behind.
That is where the current dearth of ideas and loss of faith is so pernicious. A London-based elite is simply divorced from the rest of the country and inclined to dig itself into ever-deeper holes.
Thank you. James Kirkup's ideas may be deliberately provocative but they reflect the preference for click-bait rather than serious analysis among people who consider themselves to be influential political thinkers.
Thank you for this comprehensive but very accessible analysis and prognosis of our tax and benefits situation. It should be a standard five-year for any half-serious media pundit in the days leading up to Reeves' Budget day.
On a personal note I get tired of hearing presenters mention the state pension as a benefit. I recently managed to get mine, but not before having to add substantial top-up payments for later years after being fired in my fifties and hence unemployable as a white male!
Of course the millions choosing permanent unemployment as a reasonable lifestyle choice in ever-growing numbers will never need to worry about the piddling pension amount in any case, so the figures on the spreadsheet might tend to move columns ever more so unless the whole benefits scheme is radically and painfully (for many) revised.
You raise an issue that I might take up in another article. There is little point in increasing the retirement age if the widespread discrimination against educated but 50+ workers persists. It may be illegal but few employers are stupid enough to be explicit about their behaviour. Part of it is that workers as well as companies may be reluctant to accept inverted-U shaped salary curves. And it is not just men but, for example, married women who have been out of regular employment to look after children. In effect we have a system that condemns many educated workers to what is called early retirement because employers prefer younger, cheaper, but less skilled workers.
Agreed that largely it is just numbers on a spreadsheet when it comes to cutting costs, so (at least as it was immediately after the 2008 crash) attention is focused on longer-serving and therefore older workers; who also have the most experience and skill, being the product of an earlier, more enlightened "three Rs" education system. And the whole cast has changed by the time negative impacts are felt in terms of worker productivity - which I believe is the lowest in Europe as we stand. By the way, I was overruled by the predictive text thing on my tablet in my reply above. Where is has helpfully inserted the completely unrelated "five year", it should say "crib sheet" ! I must try to switch it off if I can figure the blooming thing out.
Excellent analysis and discussion, if ever MSM were serious about in-depth, constructive political discussion, then this is the type of content that needs to be aired.
Thank you. Many others, as well as myself, have given up on writing serious stuff for conventional media outlets. Three immediate reasons: (a) almost none of them have the space for articles of 2,000+ words, but that is required for most serious analyses, (b) time & payment - it takes me 2-3 days (at least) to write an article but the period when even magazines could/would pay for such time ended 15-20 years ago, and (c) all of the journalists who knew and understood enough to write such pieces have retired or moved on.
James Kirkup used to direct a (relatively) serious thinktank and now is a partner in a political consultancy. That he wanted to write such a piece tells a lot about current political thinking.
Thank you for the reply. What thoroughly depressing times we find ourselves in. We can only hope that some kind of turning point will occur. Hopefully, writers such as yourself and others will eventually break through.
Thank you Gordon. This is a much clearer-eyed account than I've seen anywhere else. The opening paragraphs set the scene on how long it can take reality to dawn and therefore how hard it is to make radical but necessary changes.
The basic metrics on Europe suggest it is now decline relative to the rest of the world. In politics and the media critical analysis that I remember from decades ago has been for the most part replaced by select disjointed facts barely held in a string bag of political theories bearing little resemblance to reality.
Your pension and social security analysis today is excellent. This clearly places the relative costs of spending and the social compact in a realistic light. I remember the talks by Hans Rosling two decade ago on social security spending and its inexorable growth as a proportion of GDP. What we see now in the UK (and may be in Europe as a while) looks like a desperate attempt to keep spending on none essential political projects while jettisoning the spending on essentials of the social compact. Looking at the borrowing, spending and the media noise it looks like we are nearing a point of some sort of reckoning in politics as the money runs out.
This is the second cycle of pessimism overtaking optimism in my life span. The original one was the sense of dislocation and failure during the late 1960s and 1970s - in effect the end of the post-war boom and the initial phase of liberalisation. Mrs T's period in office changed that partly by throwing out conventional wisdom from the previous 30 years and partly as a consequence of good luck - the oil & finance sectors. However, that boost arguably died in 2008 and, even worse, left much of the country behind.
That is where the current dearth of ideas and loss of faith is so pernicious. A London-based elite is simply divorced from the rest of the country and inclined to dig itself into ever-deeper holes.
An excellent article. James Kirkup needs not only to read this, but also to understand it and its implications. I doubt he will manage either.
Thank you. James Kirkup's ideas may be deliberately provocative but they reflect the preference for click-bait rather than serious analysis among people who consider themselves to be influential political thinkers.
Sage and thought provoking - thank you
Thank you.
Thank you for this comprehensive but very accessible analysis and prognosis of our tax and benefits situation. It should be a standard five-year for any half-serious media pundit in the days leading up to Reeves' Budget day.
On a personal note I get tired of hearing presenters mention the state pension as a benefit. I recently managed to get mine, but not before having to add substantial top-up payments for later years after being fired in my fifties and hence unemployable as a white male!
Of course the millions choosing permanent unemployment as a reasonable lifestyle choice in ever-growing numbers will never need to worry about the piddling pension amount in any case, so the figures on the spreadsheet might tend to move columns ever more so unless the whole benefits scheme is radically and painfully (for many) revised.
You raise an issue that I might take up in another article. There is little point in increasing the retirement age if the widespread discrimination against educated but 50+ workers persists. It may be illegal but few employers are stupid enough to be explicit about their behaviour. Part of it is that workers as well as companies may be reluctant to accept inverted-U shaped salary curves. And it is not just men but, for example, married women who have been out of regular employment to look after children. In effect we have a system that condemns many educated workers to what is called early retirement because employers prefer younger, cheaper, but less skilled workers.
Agreed that largely it is just numbers on a spreadsheet when it comes to cutting costs, so (at least as it was immediately after the 2008 crash) attention is focused on longer-serving and therefore older workers; who also have the most experience and skill, being the product of an earlier, more enlightened "three Rs" education system. And the whole cast has changed by the time negative impacts are felt in terms of worker productivity - which I believe is the lowest in Europe as we stand. By the way, I was overruled by the predictive text thing on my tablet in my reply above. Where is has helpfully inserted the completely unrelated "five year", it should say "crib sheet" ! I must try to switch it off if I can figure the blooming thing out.
Excellent analysis and discussion, if ever MSM were serious about in-depth, constructive political discussion, then this is the type of content that needs to be aired.
Thank you. Many others, as well as myself, have given up on writing serious stuff for conventional media outlets. Three immediate reasons: (a) almost none of them have the space for articles of 2,000+ words, but that is required for most serious analyses, (b) time & payment - it takes me 2-3 days (at least) to write an article but the period when even magazines could/would pay for such time ended 15-20 years ago, and (c) all of the journalists who knew and understood enough to write such pieces have retired or moved on.
James Kirkup used to direct a (relatively) serious thinktank and now is a partner in a political consultancy. That he wanted to write such a piece tells a lot about current political thinking.
Thank you for the reply. What thoroughly depressing times we find ourselves in. We can only hope that some kind of turning point will occur. Hopefully, writers such as yourself and others will eventually break through.
Thank you Gordon. This is a much clearer-eyed account than I've seen anywhere else. The opening paragraphs set the scene on how long it can take reality to dawn and therefore how hard it is to make radical but necessary changes.
Thank you.